Australia’s Disraeli? Yeah, nah

Reading some of the hagiography from the bobbleheads, you’d be forgiven for thinking Peter Dutton has become some modern-day Disraeli — a master strategist with rhetorical flair and an instinct for power. “Look how he defeated the Voice to Parliament referendum,” they proclaim. “Marvel at the opposition’s polling!” they exhort. “Look upon his policies and weep” (actually, this last one may be accurate).

Let’s start with the prime example of Dutton’s supposed political genius — the Voice referendum. You don’t need a PhD in Australian politics to know that killing a referendum in this country isn’t hard. Getting one over the line? That’s the real trick. The blokes who wrote our Big Book of Rules (aka the Constitution) set the bar so high it’s almost impossible to clear.

A majority of voters in a majority of states have to say yes. And unless both sides of politics are on board, it’s dead in the water. Want to kill a referendum? Just say “no.” When that starts sounding too petulant, demand “more details.” When you get them, say, “Not those details — the other ones.”

It’s the political strategy of a stroppy teen, not a Richelieu.

Ah, but look at the opposition’s polling numbers, they’re leading Labor. Clearly Dutton is the man of the hour, calling a divided and weary nation to his bosom.

Yeah. About that. You may have noticed that the past couple of years have been all about anti-incumbency. After the orgy of spending and low interest rates that got us through the pandemic, we’ve been dealing with the hangover of high inflation and tight monetary policy ever since. Voters around the globe have given the bird to incumbent governments for that — whether they are those of the right (the Tories in the UK and the BJP in India) or the left (the Democrats in the US and Labour in NZ).

If you’re in opposition, you should be getting a boost from a pissed off electorate, particularly if they’re forced to pick — like people responding to pollsters’ questions. If you’re not, then something is seriously wrong with your brand. If letting the surf move you towards the beach is political genius, the bobblehead bar is extremely low.

Now let’s take a look at Pete’s Policies — all two of them. Yes, so far, the Down Under Disraeli has given us two actual policies. Fair enough, the real election campaign is yet to kick off, but it’s not like we don’t know polling day is coming. And soon. So far, Pete has given us a brain fart about nuclear energy that no serious person thinks is serious. If you do think it is, I have a bridge to sell you. Wait, scratch that. I have a small, modular nuclear reactor that can power a city to sell you. It’s not commercially available yet, but it’s right over there next to the sky hooks and peace in the Middle East.

In this, I will give Pete some credit. It’s hard to see this “policy” as anything but an attempt to kill off the transition to renewables in much the same way that he killed off the Voice referendum. However, just saying “no” to renewables, when the market is saying “yes”, was never going to wash. No, what was needed was some fear, uncertainty, and doubt (aka FUD) to spook investors: “That’s a nice investment you’ve made in renewables, shame it became a white elephant because of government policy.”

While Pete has managed to distract Australia’s political commentariat and get them clucking and bobbing their heads and taking nuclear energy seriously, that’s hardly a crowning achievement. The bobbleheads earn their crust by pontificating on the Emperor’s New Clothes at the drop of a non-existent hat.

We also have another brain fart of a policy to make certain business lunches tax-deductible. This had to have been dreamt up over a lunch that went on way too long at the arse end of 2024 and has been rightly criticised as the gaping hole in the budget that it is.

Since the world has had Trump 2.0 forced on it (along with a side order of Unelected Elon), Pete has had a spring in his step. In the eyes of an ex-copper from Queensland, the return of “The Donald” can only mean only one thing: the time for hard men of the hard right has come. This is Pete’s moment. His chance to rush the throne and grab the crown.

And so we have yet more Coalition thought bubbles that are Mini-Me versions of Trump/Elon’s forever culture wars: a war on wokery, a war on DEI, a war on government “waste”, a war of government regulation. There’s a lot more to come from the unfolding coup in the US before Australians head to the polls. Which means plenty of opportunities for overreach by Elon’s DOGE tech bro Shitler Youth and abuses from a group drunk on power.

And thereon lies the danger for our would-be Machiavelli — there’s plenty of time for Trump/Elon to trash the MAGA brand and have people realise it’s just a naked cash grab rather than (a) a great opportunity for MAGA to hate on the “wrong” sort of people and (b) a chance to make life better for the working classes that voted for Trump.

A sharp political mind might realise that there are dangers in aligning yourself with someone who wants to bulldoze Gaza while you’re trying to court votes in outer metropolitan parts of Sydney or Melbourne. Or with someone who is busy pulling his country out of the Paris Accords while you’re trying to win back traditional seats lost to Teals.

When the Trump/Elon clusterfuck already appeals to your rusted ons, you don’t need to lean in or bend over, those votes are in the bag. You need to expand your appeal if you want the keys to the Lodge.

Disraeli would know that.